Stephen Strasburg: 160 Becomes 180 Becomes ???

Back in April, with Stephen Strasburg coming off Tommy John surgery, it was assumed that the Nats ace would be on a strict innings count of 160 innings.  During the previous year another Nats pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann, had the same issue and was limited to that 160 number.

As the season went on and the team improved, Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo started to act like the concept of a defined innings limit came out of nowhere, and said that he would use an "eye-test" to decide when to shut down Strasburg.

But was Rizzo telling the truth?  Did he change his mind?  Is he trying to throw off the fans?

Now, a report out of Nats Town from Bill Ladson have produced a new number, 180.  Ladson tweeted the following:

According to a source, it is not set in stone that #Strasburg would pitch 160 innings this year. It could go up to 180 innings
— William Ladson (@washingnats) July 24, 2012

Management for the Nationals has to balance the following factors:

• Stephen Strasburg's health/future (if he gets hurt he could miss seasons)
• Stephen Strasburg's feelings (he isn't gonna want to sit)
• Fans (they want a World Series)

So what number will it be next month?  200?


It is going to be very interesting going forward with the MLB putting the Nats playoff chances around 90%.  No matter what the number is now, or what they are claiming it will be, one thing is for sure.  If Stephen Strasburg gets injured in inning 161, Mike Rizzo is going to be in trouble...

Rizzo The Great Makes Strasburg's Innings Limit Disappear

In 1983 David Copperfield performed one of his most famous illusions of all time.  he made the Statue of Liberty disappear.  It was a pretty cool trick...even after I read how it was done.

Well now it's time to check out a new trick from a new magician; Rizzo The Great!  The magician from DC's latest trick was making Stephen Strasburg's innings limit disappear!

The following Rizzo quote comes from ESPN:

"There is no magic number," Rizzo said. "It will be the eye test. (Manager) Davey (Johnson) won't decide and ownership won't decide. It will be the general manager, and that's me."'

Originally, Rizzo stated there was going to be an innings limit, but did not specify a number.  The media presumed that Strasburg would follow the Jordan Zimmermann model, who's 2011 pitching limit was 160 innings following Tommy John surgery.

Now, Rizzo is saying that the team is not following the JZ pattern.  Instead he is going to make a decision based on what he sees.  But is the Nats GM really going to base his decision on sight, or is he going to base his decision on the World Series itch that is most likely getting stronger every day that the Nats remain in first place?

Whether Rizzo had the 160 number as his original plan or not, one theory is that Rizzo is at least considering straying from "the plan".  Or is it all part of the long-con, the big illusion?  Is he just using some slight of hand to keep the fans and media off his back?

Strasburg pitches tonight against the Braves and he sits at 106 innings

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Let us know in comments if you think Rizzo is considering changing his plan, or if you think he is just lying so the fans so they don't get upset before the shutdown happens.

Stras-Tracker Update

• Strasburg is averaging 5.8 innings and is on pace for 9.5 more starts this season.
• Strasburg averages 4.7 strikeouts for every 1 walk this season. 

Stras-Tracker Mid Season Report

Here we are at the halfway point of the season and Strasburg has burned through 62% of his innings.  My quick math says I don't think he is going to make it till the end of the season...but then that shouldn't come as a surprise.

He did an interview today with Holden and Danny on 106.7 The Fan.  Here are some of the highlights:

On arm strength:

"It feels really good [the arm]...I've been getting stronger and stronger."

"100+ pitches is a lot easier than it was earlier in the year."

On Innings Limit:

"I can't really worry about that to be honest [the innings limit]...its something that they haven't discussed with me."


The fact that they (Rizzo & Davey) haven't discussed any of the innings limit stuff directly with Strassy isn't because they are being a-holes...It is because of the following:

"They don't want me to worry about it in the clubhouse...when it comes to game time they just want me to go out there and pitch and go as many innings as I can."
     
With those quotes in mind, let's take a look at his season thus far...

Stras-Tracker Update

• Stras is averaging 5.8 innings per start and is on pace for 11.5 more starts.
• 3 innings is tied for the shortest start in his career.  He pitched 3 innings once before in 2011.

Stras-Tracker: Update

Well after the latest 111 pitches (which still only counts as 7 innings, just like an 80 pitch 7 innings?) and his 9th win of the season, Strasburg is past the halfway point on the season...

• Strasburg is averaging 6 innings per game.  At this pace he can pitch 12.7 games before he is done.
• The Nat's have only lost two games all season in which Strasburg has pitched.

Fan Poll: Strasburg At The All-Star Game

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Last week: we asked you which Nationals player you would like to have hitting in the clutch.  Bryce Harper was the overwhelming choice getting over 50% of the vote.  Ian Desmond picked up another almost 25%.  However we say Bryce with several chances in the 14 inning game against the Yanks to be clutch and he didn't come through.  Would you still go with Harper?

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The All-Star game is coming up in less than a month and with the Stras-Tracker on full blast towards 160 innings, a very important decision may have to be made by the organization.  This decision has been discussed all year long but as the Mid-Summer Classic nears, will the Washington Nationals tell Strasburg that he is prohibited from pitching in this great baseball tradition?

If things go smoothly for the next month, the final game before the All-Star game will be pitched by the third slot in the rotation, Jordan Zimmermann.  Strasburg is currently set for the Friday before the game, giving him just 3 days of rest.  The All-Star game is just 1 inning of work, but what will the rest factor have on the team's decision?

Also, if the rotation were to somehow change with a rainout or by sitting out someone an extra start, then Strasburg could end up pitching the Sunday before the Mid-Summer Classic and would most likely not be able to pitch.

The Nationals have Strassy on an innings limit and the way the Nats season is going, every inning may be extremely important.  Should they let him pitch in a "meaningless" game and knock off an essential inning from the pennant chase?  Should they make him sit out to save the inning?  Will they have a discussion with Stephen or will they just flat out tell him he can't?  Will there be a controversy?

The Nationals may be doing some dances to get a few rainouts that will cause Strasburg to be on the mound on the Sunday before the game, eliminating the controversy.  A bit of a stretch would be skipping a Strasburg start to ensure he pitched that day, but I wouldn't put it past the Nats.

Do You Want To See Strasburg Pitch In The All-Star Game

Stras-Tracker Update

• Strasburg is now averaging 5.9 innings per game.  At this pace has 14 games left this season.
• After pitching a career high 119 pitches two games ago, Stras only threw 89 last time out.
• From Nat's insider Amanda Comak's twitter:
• "Stephen Strasburg was trimming the nail on his right middle finger and cut it. That's why his start was abbreviated after 6 IP."
• Strasburg, after 77 IP, on limit: "I try not to think about it, but w/the direction we're going in, it gets even harder not to think about."

Stras-Tracker Update

• Strasburg is averaging 5.92 innings per start.  He is on pace to pitch ~15 more games this season.

• After not making it past 5 innings in 3 straight games, Strasburg has gone 7 and 6 innings in his last two starts, racking up 22 strikeouts. 

• Uncharted Territory:
• In 2010 Strasburg pitched in 12 games.  He threw 1070 pitches, averaging 89 per start.
• This season he has completed 12 games with 1130 pitches, averaging 94 per start.
• For comparison, Justin Verlander is averaging 112 per start this season. Gio is averaging 98. 

Stras-tracker

• Strasburg is averaging 5.9 innings per start.  At this pace he has about 16 games left for the season.

Stras-tracker

• Strasburg is averaging 5.8 innings per start, putting him on pace for 17.5 more games.
• Strasburg has not worked past 5 innings in his last 3 starts.
• The Nationals have won all but 2 of the games in which Strasburg started

Stras-Tracker Update

Strasburg made his 9th start of the season against the Orioles yesterday so it's time to take a look at how many innings he is away from 160.  If you haven't heard about the innings limit he is on this season, check out the story here!

• Stras is averaging about 5.9 innings a game.  He is on pace to pitch somewhere around 18 more games.
• If we lose Strasburg to this innings limit not only do we lose our number 1 pitcher, but apparently a legitimate homerun threat as well!

The Nationals Black Cloud

There is a black cloud sitting over the Washington Nationals season, one that will only loom larger and larger as September gets closer...

The roster as currently constructed is performing better than expected and the growing number of players on the DL is getting to be laughable. 

Keeping this pace all season will be difficult, especially with the Braves powering towards the top of the National League.   The call up and seemingly “unlimited remarkableness” of Bryce Harper has somewhat masked the awesome season that Steven Strasburg is having.   And yet that awesome season is the giant dark cloud.

160 innings;  a number that Rizzo and friends have written in stone.  A number that they claim will not be exceeded.  It’s not even the end of May and Strasburg is approaching 50 innings pitched.  Those in games that may not count as much as the games he will miss in the end of the season.

The fact is that this team is guaranteed to lose their best player come September, before the pennant race even gets going.  It puts a bit of a damper on the whole party atmosphere the Nats have going right now.  It even has the potential to get worse as Strasburg may be counted on to go deeper into games as their importance increases.

Yes, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman are a terrific one two punch, but it’s that power trio that makes this engine go.  To remove one of the biggest cogs in crunch time will most likely allow division rivals like the Braves and Phillies to have a clearer shot at the pennant.

While the Nationals won’t be counted out completely, they may be forced into game 163.  And who will they pitch in the one game playoff if Strasburg is shelved, and if Gio & Zimmermann were used to get the team into that playoff?

Yes, the Nats are good enough to get in without Strasburg, but they are not likely to pull off a 2010 San Francisco Giants without him.  It looks like it is going to be a fun summer in Washington, but what will it look like as fall approaches?  Finishing without your ace is going to raise the degree of difficulty tenfold, and while it doesn't automatically kill the Nats, it may be just the thing that decides their fate.

Written by FC Kendrick, Nexus Columnist